Strategic planning and the evolution of the threat. Lessons learned from the case of Ecuador and its security crisis (2018-2024)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyse the current security crisis in Ecuador, with a particular focus on how perceptions of threat and its evolution can establish a basis for strategic planning. In this regard, the study explores how a limited view of threats and their possible development directly results in a lack of discussion about potential changes or modifications in the doctrinal field, which underpins the execution of security actions. The present paper thus presents a case study, outlined in three analytical dimensions: firstly, an examination of the threat in phenomenological or actor terms; secondly, an analysis of the degree of consequence that the determination of the threat has within the scope of strategic planning; and thirdly, an investigation of how the above vision affects the way in which a subsequent diagnosis and analysis is established when constructing public policy in the security field, considering the security crisis affecting the Andean country. It is concluded that, despite having strategic planning instruments and tools, Ecuador lacks an adequate framework that allows for flexibility not only in planning itself, but also in an evaluation system with respect to the degree of achievement of objectives, in relation to the improvement of security indices from a broad perspective.