PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC RESULTS AND RISK OF DAIRY SYSTEMS IN NORTHERN-CENTRAL ARGENTINA

Abstract

Variations in milk and concentrate feed prices and the effect of climate on crop production affect productivity and profitability of dairy systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate productivity and economic results, and assess the risk of different dairy systems in the Central-Northern region of Argentina. Alternative dairy systems (other than the traditional system of this region) were studied, evaluating the effects of increases in stocking rate and use of supplementary feed, as well as the effect of using different feeding systems on productivity and profitability. Two mathematical models were used in this analysis: one model to predict crop and pasture production, and the other to evaluate the performance of the whole dairy system. Deterministic and stochastic simulations, i.e., with random variation in milk and concentrate feed prices, and crop yield, were performed. Results showed that the current production system of this region is not profitable. The alternative systems with higher stocking rate and supplementation resulted in higher milk production per hectare and improved economic results. However, intensification of the system, through increases in stocking rate and supplementation resulted in an increased risk. Milk and concentrate feed prices had more impact on the economic results than climate.