Modelado del peligro de ignición de incendios forestales en Galicia (España)

Abstract

This study proposes a model of danger of ignition of wildfires in Galicia, the Spanish region with more fires recorded annually caused mostly by human causes.

The model is based on the one proposed by Chuvieco et al. (2014), improving the spatial resolution from 1000 to 500 m, creating specific layers of human and natural causality and keeping methods of obtaining the status of the living and dead fuel. The process has been automated using Python.

The causalities were modeled by GWLR, obtaining an overall reliability of 75% for human and 94% for naturally occurring fires. These variables are combined using a probabilistic approach for obtained the danger of ignition due to the causal agent. The new layer is integrated with the danger associated to the moisture content of the fuel (alive and dead) for obtained the danger of ignition of wildfires. The model validation was performed from the hot spots of MODIS in the summer of 2013, obtaining a 60% success where low danger areas with hot spots are related to high values of human occurrence.